Workspace
Dash Layout Settings
Save named versions of your Dash canvas. The current layout also auto-saves locally while you drag, resize, hide, or close panels.
Station View
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Prototype
Dockable Workspace
Dash Canvas
Press ` or ~, then type commands like kaus multi, regional map, or khou cams. Drag panels by the header and resize from the lower-right corner.
Open:
kaus multi, kaus 5min, khou cams, regional map, paper uhaus
Workspace: clear dash, dash
Panels: meter, archived multimodel, peak distribution, high timing, info cli
Blank dashboard
Type kaus multi, kaus forecast, or khou fcst in the command bar to add a panel.
Regional Weather Map
Weather Layers
Replay
Lower pressure
Higher pressure
Raw Sky Frame Board
48h Sky Replay
Camera Coverage
Station-adjacent camera sources are saved as raw imagery and retained for 48 hours.
Use Camera Options to choose which nearby feeds are archived for the main board.
Analysis Targets
Saved station-adjacent imagery supports cloud cover, ceiling, visibility, brightness, and late-day clearing checks.
Camera Map
Airport-centered map of the current camera set. Marker locations are estimated from the feed direction and distance until we pin exact coordinates.
Camera Options
Nearby Camera Picker
Choose which cameras should be archived in the main Cams board.
Nearby Camera Map
Click a marker to inspect and decide whether to keep it on the main board.
Selected Camera
Available Nearby Cameras
Camera Focus
Camera
Larger preview.
Solstitium Signal
Trade Now Or Wait?
Plain-English station signal built from live obs, forecast highs, probability distribution, and current IBKR contract prices.
| Temp Range | Probability |
|---|
| Contract | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|
Source Health
Fast lane status lights for the live observation pipelines.
Trend Trackers
NWS 5-Minute Obs
Side-scroll the strip, or change depth to inspect more/less recent blocks.
High Frequency Temp
| Source | Observed | Temp | Dewpoint | Wind / Gust | Visibility |
|---|
Latest METAR/SPECI
Latest 12 hours of settlement-basis airport reports.
| Type | Observed | Temp | Dew | Wind | Vis | Pressure | Cloud / Ceiling | Weather | Precip | Raw |
|---|
Current Observation Matrix
Regime Signals
Measured station signals versus live model ranges.
Station Info
Latest NWS products and external reference links.
Reference Links
Latest Daily Climatology Report
NWS CLI product.
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Latest Area Forecast Discussion
NWS AFD product.
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Forecast Ingestion
Freshness lights for the latest model runs and the current forecast ingest lane.
Ensemble Snapshot
Forecast Focus
Run-by-run model guidance, forecast highs, bias checks, and ingest health for the active station.
Daily max outlook is loading.
Latest Model Overlay
| Model | Latest Valid | Latest Temp | Vs Obs | Day Max | Hit Time |
|---|
Daily Max Outlook
| Model | Forecast Day | Max Temp | Hit Time | Hours Used | Run Stamp |
|---|
NWS Hourly Run
| Valid | Temp | Dewpoint | Wind | Forecast |
|---|
NWS Hourly Bias
| Valid | Forecast | Observed | Bias | MA Bias |
|---|
HRRR Run
| Valid | Temp | Dewpoint | Wind | Cloud | Pressure |
|---|
GFS Run
| Valid | Temp | Dewpoint | Wind | Cloud | Pressure |
|---|
NBM Run
| Valid | Temp | Dewpoint | Wind | Cloud | Precip |
|---|
ICON Run
| Valid | Temp | Dewpoint | Wind | Cloud | Pressure |
|---|
ECMWF Run
| Valid | Temp | Dewpoint | Wind | Cloud | Pressure |
|---|
Model Bias Comparison
| Model | Valid | Forecast | Observed | Bias | MA Bias |
|---|
Multigraph
Observation and model traces share one station timeline for quick source comparison.
Model Agreement
Agreement is computed from the live multimodel forecast ladders for the active variable.
Agreement Timeline
| Valid | Consensus | Range | Spread | Models | Agreement |
|---|
Replay Workspace
Loading selected archive day.
Replay uses stored observation and forecast archives in one continuous window. Drag the chart left and right, and use the day controls to move the focus day.
Archived Day Summary
This view overlays stored Climate Sight and station observations against every forecast run we archived for the selected day.
Archived Multimodel Replay
Stored observations and all archived runs issued during the selected day are overlaid here.
All runs
Forecast Runs For Selected Day
Runs are grouped by model so the list stays compact. Open only the model lane you want to inspect.
Bias Windows
Daily-max verification is calculated against METAR/SPECI truth. Moving averages are grouped by local settlement day so one active day does not dominate the bias profile just because it had more runs.
Peak Time Context
This keeps the local high-time climatology next to the daily-max verification, so forecast error can be read against the seasonal timing anchor.
28-Day Peak Time Grid
Four weeks of settlement-basis high-hit times, laid out for quick seasonal pattern recognition.
Peak Time Distribution
Histogram of how often the daily high landed in each local time bucket over the last 28 Chicago days.
28-Day Truth Timing Chart
Each bar is anchored to local solar noon. Bars to the right mean the day’s high happened after solar noon; bars to the left mean it happened before.
28-Day Truth Timing Table
| Chicago Day | High | Hit Local | Hit UTC | Solar Noon | Offset | Type |
|---|
Daily Max Bias Runs
| Model | Chicago Day | Run Stamp | Forecast Max | Forecast Hit | Truth Max | Truth Hit | Bias | Lead |
|---|
Temperature Seasonality
Monthly High-Temperature Paths
Compare the selected month against prior years, the average path, and the local normal where available.
Average Month Path
Prior Year Paths
| Year | Days | Avg High | Max | Min | 1st Half | 2nd Half | End-Start | 90F+ | 95F+ | 100F+ | +5F Normal |
|---|
Trading Lab
Paper Bots, Backtests, And Model Health
Start here when you want to know whether Solstitium sees a market edge. The top panels are the usable operator tools; the lower panels are advanced model plumbing.
What To Use
Live Paper Trading
Use this first. It lets fake-money bots trade the real IBKR prices we see right now.
Backtest Past Days
Use this to check whether the model would have made money on stored market days.
Model Health
Use this as a warning light. If diagnostics fail, do not trust apparent profits yet.
Market Watch
90% Bot And Ladder Packages
High-confidence contract flags and near-free-money ladder relationships live here instead of taking over the global header.
Quantile Targets
Each target becomes a separate LightGBM quantile regressor. Together they form a tradable distribution instead of a single high-temperature number.
Parser Sets
Start with Standard for useful signal density. Light is for fast checks, Full is research mode after the archive deepens.
Advanced Training Steps
Live Paper Trading
Can The Bots Make Money Today?
This runs fake-money agents against the real IBKR contract prices we are seeing now. They can buy paper contracts, hold open P/L, and wait for the official high before the day is truly settled.
1. Seed Agents
Create independent $25 paper bankrolls for every station.
2. Run Forward Step
Let the bots inspect live obs, forecasts, and IBKR prices once.
3. Watch P/L
Open positions update as prices move; final truth comes after the daily high is official.
| Agent | Station | Equity | P/L | Trades |
|---|
Recent Contract Decisions
Every contract the bots considered, including rejected contracts and the reason they did not buy.
| Time | Agent | Contract | Action | Reason | Fair | Market | Edge |
|---|
Research Check
Backtest Past Market Days
This tests stored IBKR snapshots against the model probability table. It is useful for research, but live paper trading above is the current-day tool.
| Time | Station | Contract | Side | Qty | Px | Edge | P/L |
|---|
Data Coverage
| Station | Truth Days | Obs Rows | Forecast Rows | Market Days | Market Snaps | Truth Range | Readiness |
|---|
Raw Database Tables
Indicators
Station Ruleset Backtesting
Parsed from docs/rulset.md. This page turns meteorological rules into timestamped trigger definitions, then into reliability grades by station, season, time, and regime.
Rule Temperature Meter
Prototype heat/cool envelope centered on the current station observation. Red is remaining heating potential; blue is downside/cooling risk. The range will become backtest-weighted as rules are scored.
Station
5-Minute Range Trail
Stored meter ranges will tighten as more intraday snapshots are captured.
Waiting
Daily Max Contract Lens
Latest conditional Tmax probabilities will appear after the 5-minute range loads.
Waiting
High Timing Index
Probability that the daily high has already been reached.
| Contract | Fair YES | Fair NO | Exact Tmax | Support |
|---|
Rule Reliability Scorecard
Stored signal snapshots are compared against settlement truth and market moves. This is the bridge from “rule sounds right” to “rule paid historically.”
Rule Grades
| Rule | Active | Settled | Accuracy | Avg Miss |
|---|
Station / Time Splits
Historical Trigger Events
Exact trigger definitions are evaluated against stored station-time snapshots. Direct fields are used when available; otherwise the rule is proxy-tested through the closest signal bucket.
Rule Event Performance
| Rule | Proxy | Triggers | Accuracy | Error |
|---|
Latest Event Rows
| Time | Station | Rule | Dir | Result |
|---|
Build Sequence
Backtest Targets
Rule Inventory
Start with the text rule, then make the trigger exact enough to test on historical snapshots.
| Rule | Scope | Category | Condition | Expected | Prior | Trigger Draft |
|---|
Reliability Scorecard Fields
Conditional Climatology
Season-aware analogs compare the current trace with historical days near this point on the calendar.
Current Daily Context
This is the current station state being compared against historical seasonal days.
Monthly Precip Tracker
Month-to-date precipitation context and same-season historical comparison.
Monthly Precip History
| Year | Month To Date | End Month | Vs Current | Vs Normal | Rank |
|---|
Monthly Precip Condition Analogs
Condition-based month-end rainfall stats for the current seasonal setup.
| Condition | Current | Sample | Avg Final | Min | Max |
|---|
Monthly Precip Forecast Outlook
Long-range precipitation outlook built from lighter Open-Meteo model pulls instead of Herbie.
| Model | Next 14d | Through Month | Projected Month End | Wettest Hour | Covers Month End |
|---|
Condition Filters
Forward daily-high stats for the current streak and regime setup inside the seasonal window.
| Condition | Current | Sample | Mean High | Likely Range | Mean Hit Time |
|---|
Shared Analog Matches
Days that overlap both the observation-trace and forecast-trace analog sets.
| Analog Day | Combined | Obs Score | Fcst Score | Final High | Hit Time | Tags |
|---|
Set Comparison
Live comparison between the obs-led and forecast-led analog sets.
| Check | Obs Set | Forecast Set | Flag | Notes |
|---|
Obs Trace Analogs
Current observed intraday trace matched against historical seasonal days.
| Analog Day | Score | Overlap | Final High | Hit Time | Vs Normal | Tags |
|---|
Forecast Mean Analogs
Bias-aware stitched forecast mean matched against historical seasonal days.
| Analog Day | Score | Overlap | Final High | Hit Time | Vs Normal | Tags |
|---|
Recent 14-Day Temperature Path
Continuous current-year hourly METAR/SPECI trace with prior-year daily-high paths for the same calendar window.
Prior Year Paths
| Year / Day | Points | Min | Max | Average |
|---|
Monthly Precip Overview
Month-to-date rainfall, seasonal same-month analogs, long-range forecast totals, and monthly precip market context.
Precip Accumulation Graph
Year-to-date rainfall accumulation with clickable month slices.
Remaining-Month Analog Split
Separates the selected month into rainfall before the current cutoff and rainfall after it.
| Analog Year | Before Cutoff | After Cutoff | Final Month | Remaining Share | Rank |
|---|
Forecast / Market Blend
Month-end rainfall outlook and any confirmed monthly precip market signal for this station.
Closest Historical Months
| Year | Month To Date | Vs Current | Vs Normal | Rank |
|---|
Condition-Based Month-End Analogs
How similar same-season months usually finished when the current dry / hot-dry structure was already in place by this point in the month.
| Condition | Current | Sample | Avg Final | Min | Max |
|---|
Long-Range Precip Forecasts
Longer-horizon rainfall totals from lighter Open-Meteo model pulls instead of heavier Herbie runs.
| Model | Next 14d | Through Month | Projected Month End | Wettest Hour | Month End Covered |
|---|
Monthly Precip Markets
Monthly rain contracts appear here when a station has a confirmed listed market.
| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last | Tail Prob | Status |
|---|
Signals
Reality vs Forecast vs Market
First-pass station-specific signal cockpit for daily high-temperature trading. These are meteorological rule skeletons and will be tuned per station/regime as we learn.
Station Adjustment Notes
Agents
Weather Trading Agents
Station-specific agent stack for forecast baseline, reality adjustment, regime detection, analog matching, and experimental market translation.
Station Cloud Reality
Agent Outputs
Agent Inputs
Strategy Replay Lab
All-Station Market Backtest
Replay stored observations and IBKR snapshots across every selected market station with independent strategy agents.
Only days with stored market snapshots can be tested.
Market Structure
Station Volatility Backtest
Measures how stored IBKR contracts moved by station and lead time, while showing missing and partial days instead of hiding them.
Station Volatility
| Station | Days | Avg Move | P95 Move | Range | Spread | Fade |
|---|
Lead-Time Buckets
| Lead | Moves | Avg Move | P95 | Drift | Spread |
|---|
Day And Station Screener
| Date | Station | Status | Regime | High | Score | Snaps | Avg Move | Range | P95 | Fade |
|---|
Agent Portfolio
Trade bars show realized gain/loss for sells and settlements; buys show capital risked.
| Time | Action | Contract | Qty | Price | Risk/PnL | Logic |
|---|
AI Decision Tape
The latest replay trades, including market price, computed fair price, and edge at entry.
| Time | Station | Contract | High | Exp | Paid | Fair | Edge |
|---|
Real Trade Journal
Portfolio
Fast manual entry for Robinhood and Kalshi weather trades, with editable bookkeeping and all-station contract context.
Quick Entry
Add Trade
Open Positions
| Broker | Station | Contract | Qty | Avg | Mark | P/L |
|---|
Trade Blotter
| Time | Broker | Station | Trade | Qty | Price | Reason |
|---|
Paper Brokerage
Solstitium Paper
Manual fake-money trading marked to live IBKR weather prices with limit checks, fees, bid/ask crossing, and simulated liquidity.
Order Ticket
Trade Weather Contracts
Portfolio P/L
Open Contracts
| Station | Contract | Qty | Entry | Last | Max Risk | Max Gain | Est Fair | P/L | ROI |
|---|
Activity
| Time | Station | Trade | Qty | Price |
|---|
IBKR / ForecastEx Contract Board
Intraday Contract Prices
Today Chain
| Strike | Yes Px | No Px | Yes Bid/Ask | No Bid/Ask | Yes Last | No Last | Yes Vol | No Vol |
|---|
Tomorrow Chain
| Strike | Yes Px | No Px | Yes Bid/Ask | No Bid/Ask | Yes Last | No Last | Yes Vol | No Vol |
|---|
Kalshi Contract Board
Intraday Contract Prices
Today Chain
| Bucket | Yes Px | No Px | Yes Bid/Ask | No Bid/Ask | Last | Volume | Close |
|---|
Tomorrow Chain
| Bucket | Yes Px | No Px | Yes Bid/Ask | No Bid/Ask | Last | Volume | Close |
|---|
Market Status
Live temperature-market ladders and station-implied forecast ranges.
Market-Implied High
Contract ladders are converted into expected high, likely range, and modal outcome.